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Mearsheimer on China-US: Hot War is Possible

By Meng Zhe, Xu-Pan Yiru, and Ge Xinge | China Daily | Updated: 2024-10-30 15:42
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Full Interview with John Mearsheimer

In an exclusive interview with Media Unlocked in Beijing, Professor John Mearsheimer discusses the intensifying security competition between the US and China.

He emphasizes that the US is primarily focused on containing China's rise, arguing that current tensions stem from a shift in the balance of power rather than ideology. He notes the US claims of promoting "democracy" are designed by American elites as a "velvet glove over the iron fist."

Mearsheimer acknowledges the potential for a hot war but suggests that leaders on both sides will likely avoid direct conflict, primarily due to the presence of nuclear weapons. He identifies key flashpoints, including Taiwan, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula, where conflicts could arise.

Despite the competitive atmosphere, Mearsheimer stresses the importance of cooperation on global issues like climate change and nuclear proliferation, noting that such collaboration will always be overshadowed by their rivalry. He concludes that for both nations, long-term success hinges on economic power and technological advancement, warning that the zero-sum nature of their relationship makes win-win outcomes unlikely.

Key Questions Explored:
-Why is the US trying to contain China?
-What's the endgame between China and the US?
-Will the hostile rhetoric between the two countries become a self-fulfilling prophecy?
-What accounts for real winning in an anarchic political system?
-What could prevent flashpoints from escalating into a hot war?
-How can China and the US cooperate in global crises despite ongoing rivalry?
-How have interactions with China's younger generation changed Mearsheimer's perspective?

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