The heyday of mainland high rollers shaping up Macao's casino fortunes seems to be a thing of the past. Major investment banks say they expect the gambling mecca's performance at the casino tables in October to worsen after a fourth consecutive year-on-year decline. A 17-percent rise in the number of mainland visitors to Macao during the just ended, week-long National Day break has failed to lift gaming revenues. Instead, casino operators reported a 40-percent drop in average daily gaming table income, as the mainland continues with its massive anti-corruption campaign and casino halls enforced an almost blanket ban on smoking.

"If we assume that the rest of the month would see daily revenues of HK$750-800 million and add a full-month slot revenue assumption of HK$1.2 billion, October's total gross gaming revenues (GGR) would only come up to HK$26-27.2 billion, representing a 23-27 percent decline yearly," a Barclays report said.

The spillover from the mainland's ongoing war on graft has battered Macao's revenues from VIP gamblers. The average daily table gaming revenues during the Oct 1-6 "Golden Week" is estimated to have plunged to a mere HK$1 billion - 40 percent down compared with the same period last year - although the number of mainland tourists arriving in Macao climbed to 846,000. The 17.1-percent increase was attributed to the protests in Hong Kong which have continued since Sept 28.

The mainland's anti-graft campaign has gone on for two years, while Macao's move to create a smoke-free environment in all the main gaming floors at its 35 casinos has come earlier than expected.

And, Macao's troubles are by no means over. A Macao casino executive too painted a gloomy picture, saying he expects a subdued number of mainland visitors in December to coincide with the 15th anniversary of Macao's return to the motherland. "This will have a dampening effect on the city's lifeblood. The ferocity of the (mainland's) anti-corruption drive has scared away a lot of people," he said.

According to official figures released earlier this month, Macao's total gambling revenues for September slipped 11.7 percent to 25.6 billion patacas ($3.2 billion) - the fourth consecutive year-on-year decline in GGR and the largest in percentage terms since June 2009, as well as the lowest GGR total for any month since November 2012.

Detailed gaming data showed that a weak VIP segment was mainly responsible for the 11.7 percent decline in GGR. The decrease in VIP gaming revenues widened to 25.7 percent from 19 percent in August.

[email protected]

(HK Edition 10/10/2014 page8)