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China's military threat a tough political sell

Updated: 2011-07-22 14:08

(chinadaily.com.cn)

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Most Republican Party candidates don't seem to regard China as a major military threat, although they do treat it as an economic problem, according to Robert Farley, an assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky, in a column in World Politics Review on July 20, 2011.

The economic wellbeing of the United States - and the business interests that normally support the Republican Party - depends on cordial relations with China, said Farley. As the US and China are tightly integrated on virtually every conceivable set of economic metrics, "any serious disruption in relations, much less a war, would prove disastrous to the U.S. economy". And "it would be particularly disastrous for large corporations that have heavily invested in China or that view China as a major actual or potential market for their goods".

According to Farley, most candidates for the GOP presidential nomination have avoided inflammatory rhetoric about China's military threat. "One of the selling points for John Huntsman's candidacy is the business opportunities generated by his recent ambassadorship to China. Similarly, Mitt Romney has emphasized China's role as both an economic competitor and economic partner, more than as a military threat. Of the notable Republican candidates, only Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has sounded a note of warning about China's military ambitions, faulting President Barack Obama for "acquiescence to China's saber-rattling in the South China Sea".

Farley believed one reason for disregarding China's military threat may be expectations that the 2012 elections will turn primarily on economic issues. "Political attacks focusing on China's financial practices rather than its army tend to remind voters of the dreary state of the US economy." Also, "the threat of Islamic terrorism remains more salient for Americans than the threat of Chinese aircraft carriers".

In addition, there may be some long-term problems in "mobilizing" anti-China attitudes within the United States, said Farley. For example, Americans may care less about the defense of Taiwan and Japan than they might about that of Germany and the United Kingdom. American voters may not accept the idea that the United States should risk blood and treasure in defense of Vietnamese territorial claims in the South China Sea.