Tensions have escalated on the Korean Peninsula. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) exploded parts of roads connected to the Republic of Korea after Pyongyang’s announcement on Oct 9 to cut off all inter-Korean roads and railways, the Republic of Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Tuesday.

In a rapid succession of events, the DPRK accused the ROK of flying drones over Pyongyang on Friday, calling it a serious act of provocation. The DPRK is also reinforcing its defense infrastructure and has informed the US military of its decision on the phone, asking it to avoid any accidental clashes. By Sunday, the DPRK had put its front-line troops on high alert, ready for action.

The situation on the peninsula has become very volatile, increasing the risk of conflict due to miscommunication or misunderstanding.

At first glance, one might feel the DPRK is over-reacting to what has become “normal” military maneuverings and rhetoric. But a closer look would show that the actions of the ROK, the United States, and the DPRK have contributed to the escalating tensions, and exacerbated hostility. The factors behind the increasingly tense situation on the peninsula are the ROK’s intensified efforts to influence DPRK citizens, the US-ROK alliance’s increasing military pressure on the DPRK, and the DPRK’s perception of the ROK as a hostile enemy state.

Another primary factor contributing to the escalating tensions is the ROK’s increased ideological penetration into the DPRK. Since taking office, ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol has adopted a tough stance toward the DPRK. Making his intentions clear in a speech he delivered in Singapore on Oct 9, Yoon said the ROK will use different methods to promote “freedom”, “human rights” and “cultural awareness” in the DPRK, thus laying the “groundwork for reunification”. Also, the Yoon administration has been encouraging defections from the DPRK. In fact, the ROK Ministry of Defense recently awarded a soldier for inducing a DPRK citizen to defect to the ROK.

This heightened ideological offensive has not gone down well with Pyongyang. The closure of roads and railways along the inter-Korean border, coupled with the DPRK’s fortification of defense facilities, can be seen as a preventive measure against further ROK attempts to influence DPRK citizens or encourage defections. Tensions have risen also because the DPRK sees such actions as a direct threat to its sovereignty.

Compounding the issue further is the use of drones, which Pyongyang claims have dropped anti-DPRK government materials in the capital city. In the past, the ROK’s propaganda campaign was limited to dropping balloons just across the border. But the use of drones, which cross the border, fly over sensitive areas and structures such as the headquarters of the Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee, to drop propaganda materials in the DPRK, has incensed Pyongyang. The DPRK’s decision on Sunday to make its military combat ready can be attributed to the ROK’s aggressive propaganda campaign, which Pyongyang perceives as a provocation, even an existential threat.

The US-ROK alliance has also played a critical role in stoking tensions on the peninsula. Since Yoon took office, the US and the ROK have ramped up their joint military drills and other arrangements, much to the DPRK’s alarm. The US has been berthing its latest nuclear submarine at the ROK’s Busan Port and its US B-1B bombers have been flying over the Korean Peninsula.

Besides, the US-ROK issued a joint declaration on nuclear deterrence on July 11 which says the two sides will upgrade the foundation of their military alliance from conventional weapons to nuclear deterrence, in order to put the DPRK at a disadvantage.

The DPRK, already feeling encircled by US and the ROK militaries, perceives these moves as part of a broader strategy to undermine its government. This fear is heightened by the rhetoric emanating from Seoul. In an Oct 1 speech marking the ROK’s Armed Forces Day, Yoon warned that any attempt by the DPRK to use nuclear weapons would mark the end of its regime. Similar threats were issued by the ROK Ministry of National Defense on Oct 13, stating that if the DPRK endangered ROK citizens, it would face total destruction.

The DPRK sees these statements, and the open military buildup on the peninsula, as an imminent threat. By making its military combat ready, therefore, the DPRK is not only demonstrating its strength but also warning the US and the ROK to refrain from making any provocative moves. Pyongyang may not seek war, but it is clearly preparing for one.

A third significant factor behind the latest crisis is the dramatic change in the way the DPRK perceives its relationship with the ROK. Historically, despite their political and ideological differences, the two Koreas have felt ethnically inclined. But recent statements by DPRK leader Kim Jong-un suggest the complete abandonment of any such inclination. In fact, at the 9th plenary session of 8th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea in December 2023, Kim declared that the relationship between the DPRK and the ROK had changed from one of kinship to one of enmity. The DPRK now sees the ROK as a hostile state, marking a significant departure of inter-Korean relations over the past 70 years.

This shift in the DPRK’s approach stems from its frustration with both progressive and conservative governments in Seoul. Kim’s decision to physically cut off the Gyeongui Line — the symbolic link between the two Koreas — indicates the DPRK no longer has any faith in the ROK’s ability to foster positive inter-Korean relations. For Pyongyang, even the former liberal Moon Jae-in government, which actively sought reconciliation, failed to live up to expectations. No wonder the DPRK sees little hope for future dialogue with Yoon’s conservative administration.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains fraught with danger. Both the DPRK and the ROK are in the middle of significant military buildups, with neither side showing any sign of de-escalation. The DPRK, for its part, seeks to increase its strategic weapons arsenal to counterbalance US-ROK threats, while the ROK looks to the US for strategic assets to mitigate the DPRK’s nuclear capability. And although neither side seeks war, the risk of accidental conflict is real given the lack of effective communication channels.

What is urgently needed is restraint, particularly from the ROK. Seoul must scale down its propaganda activities and temper down its rhetoric, and together with Washington, reassess the potential risks of their military maneuvers, especially because Pyongyang considers them as provocative moves.

Only by exercising restraint, holding dialogue, and avoiding further provocations can the DPRK, the ROK and the US prevent a potential catastrophe on the Korean Peninsula.

The author is a researcher at the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The views don’t necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

If you have a specific expertise, or would like to share your thought about our stories, then send us your writings at [email protected], and [email protected].